Microbiologist Sucharit Bhakdi opened its YouTube channel for 13 days. The four videos there have been extremely well received. In his first video, he says that measures the Crown crises are foolish and self-destructive. His latest video is an open letter to Chancellor Merkel with five questions, which also circulate as a PDF document. According to its own information, he wants to determine what the actual huge restrictions on our fundamental rights are justified.
Dear Chancellor, as Emeritus Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz and for many years head of the Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, I feel compelled to address the root restrictions in public life that we are currently taking to prevent the spread of COVID -19 Reduce the virus, question critically.
It is not my concern specifically to minimize the dangers of viral disease or spread a political message. However, I feel it is my duty to provide a scientific contribution to the correct classification of the current data situation, putting into perspective the facts that we know so far - and also asking questions that could get lost in heated discussion. The main reason for my concern is really unpredictable socio-economic consequences of the drastic containment measures that are currently used in most of Europe and are already widely practiced in Germany.
I wish to criticize - and with the necessary foresight - to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the restriction of public life and the resulting long-term effects. There are five questions to which so far has been given an inadequate response, but are essential for a balanced analysis. Let me ask you a quick response and an appeal to the federal government, so to speak, to develop strategies that effectively protect high-risk groups without reducing public life across the board and sow the seeds for a company of bias even more intense than It is not already happening.
The complete letter with questions, backgrounds and references can be viewed here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Iq7e5IpM8NPpEKv9Qu5u5skNVrVNUI49/view?usp=sharing
Under the letter translated by InformareSenzaCensure blog
Who is Sucharit Bhakdi?
Prof. Dr. med. Sucharit Bhakdi, specialist in microbiology and epidemiology of infections, has led the Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene at the University of Mainz for 22 years. On his YouTube channel, it can be presented as "one of the most cited medical researchers in Germany." This suggests that belongs to a group of top researchers, but it is a very flexible term. On platforms such as "Web of Science" or "ResearchGATE" you can see the amount of individual researchers published or how often they are cited by other.
Thesis and application no. 1: statistics
Of Bhakdi Quote: "In the infectious diseases - founded by the Robert Koch - is traditionally made a distinction between infection and disease. A disease requires clinical manifestation. [1] Therefore, only patients with symptoms such as fever or cough should be included in statistics as a new disease. in other words, a new infection, as measured by COVID-19 test does not necessarily mean that we are dealing with a newly diagnosed patient who needs a hospital bed, but at present it is believed that the five percent of all infected people become seriously ill and require ventilation based on that, the projections indicate that the health system may be overloaded. " Sucharit Bhakdi then asked to Chancellor Merkel:
"The projections distinguish between infected patients no real symptoms and sick patients - people who develop symptoms?" The facts on statistics in the crown crisis
The rhetoric of Bhakdi is interesting observations. He stressed that a new infection does not mean that a patient needs a hospital bed. In relation to the question of extrapolations, which follows below, this suggests that the policy is facing completely wrong numbers. However, no one ever said that a newly infected patient would automatically need a hospital bed. renowned institutions like the Robert Koch Institute point out that far from all there are signs of infectious disease SARS-CoV-2. However, it is useful to use the number of infected as a basis for estimating the impending epidemic entities.
This is what he says Hendrick Streeck, the head of virology at the hospital of Bonn University. At the time, in fact there is no distinction between patients with no symptoms and actually sick patients, but: "You must first start collecting data." At the moment it is assumed that now it is the fact that the infection does not spread so much that the health system collapses. "Therefore, no distinction between" symptom-free "and" symptom-free "because you also know you people will not be made without symptoms can transmit the virus.
As for the question of how many of those infected actually get sick, the Robert Koch Institute appoints a so-called event index over the three scientific studies, which means that between 51 and 81 percent of those infected become ill, that show symptoms. For those who become ill, about a fifth shows elapsed severe or life-threatening - from pneumonia with shortness of breath insufficiency of multiple organs. In terms of the number of infected people, which means that between 10 and 16 percent of infected people becomes seriously ill.
Thesis and application no. 2: Hazard
of Bhakdi Quote: "A number of corona virus have been around for a long time - largely unnoticed in the media. If it turns out that the COVID-19 virus should not be considered to have a significantly higher risk potential than corona viruses already in circulation, all countermeasures would obviously be useless. the international journal internationally recognized "international Journal of Antimicrobial Agents" will soon publish a document that addresses exactly this question, and the preliminary results of the study are already available and lead to the conclusion that the new virus is dangerous from NOT traditional corona virus is different, as the authors expressed in the title of their work "SARS-CoV-2: Fear versus date." "
Bhakdi doubts that SARS-CoV-2 will be significantly more dangerous coronavirus already circulating, and then asks Angela Merkel: "What is the current use of intensive care unit with patients diagnosed with COVID-19 compared to other coronavirus infections, and the extent to which these data will be taken into account in the further decision-making process of the federal government? " the facts about the dangers of the new corona virus
In fact, this is an interesting question to virologists as Hendrik Streeck of Uniklink Bonn would be interested to respond. But the database of coronavirus infections is very small, says: "This is because the flu-like infections that trigger other coronavirus does not interest us ever really. It may have been a mistake after that research there or the interest of the audience for these viruses was not so great. "
However, it must be said Streeck, which SARS-Cov-2 is a new virus and you have to learn how to evaluate it first. It should be neither dramatized nor trivialized. But: "We all had corona virus infections as children, who have given us immunity, now there is a new virus that no one has had to face," said Streeck. "As a result, there may be very difficult paths and this is not trapped by our immunological memory."
Thesis and application no. 3: spreading
of Bhakdi Quote: "According to a report in the Süddeutsche Zeitung, even the much-quoted Robert Koch Institute knows exactly what is being tested on COVID-19. However, the fact is that the number of cases with the increase in the volume of tests in Germany It increased rapidly recently [4] it is therefore reasonable to suspect that the virus has already spread unnoticed in healthy population, which would have two consequences: first, it would mean that the official rate of mortality - March 26, 2020, there were 206 deaths approximately 37,300 infections, of 0.55 percent [5], are too high and, secondly, it is almost impossible to prevent its spread in the healthy population. "
Sucharit Bhakdi doubts that the official death rates are correct and suspects that the virus could already be so widespread that it can not be more content. He asks: "There was a random sample of healthy general population to validate the actual spread of the virus, or is it time?" Facts about the spread of the corona virus
The question Bhakdi formula is not new. Indeed, limiting the so-called "dark figure" is a topic on which the German virologists are already working. This requires representative studies in which different population groups are systematically tested, says virologist Hendrik Streeck Bonn University Hospital: "You must be very precise, that record the age structures of Germany and also better identify professional groups perhaps even behaviors. "
These are complex studies, but now tests of this type and, in the case of Streeck and colleagues are planned, they are already underway. The latter are currently collecting data in the Heinsberg district. The region in which the Covid 19 numbers have grown for the first serves as a model region. "We want to draw it up as a census we try to figure out in a sample how high the number of cases not reported in Heinsberg."
In addition, Gérard Krause epidemiologist at the Helmholtz Center for Research on the Braunschweig infection is preparing a study to find out how many people are immune to lung disease after being infected with SARS-Cov-2. As of April, the scientists plan to test the blood of over 100,000 individuals looking for antibodies. The results should help to monitor the development of the epidemic in Germany.
Thesis and application no. 4: mortality
In addition to the cause of death, you must specify a causal chain, with the corresponding underlying disease in third place on the death certificate. Occasionally, they must also be provided causal chains into four parts. "[6] There is no official information about whether, at least in retrospect, were carried out analysis of the most critical medical file to determine how many deaths are actually due to the virus." Bhakdi complains that the death rate is not shown correctly if the statistics do not distinguish between "dead for Covid-19" and "dead for Covid-19" and asks:
"Germany has simply followed the trend toward general suspicion COVID-19? E: intends to continue this categorization uncritically, as in other countries? How should one make a distinction between actual deaths linked to the crown and virus accidental presence at the time of death?" The facts on the crown dead
Under "mortality" Bhakdi faces a connection that is actually described as "lethal": mortality describes what percentage of those who are infected with SARS-Cov-2 die. Mortality, on the other hand, describes what percentage of the total population (infected or not) die because of the disease linked to the virus. Both are related, the mortality rate is calculated from the lethality of a pathogen and its diffusion. But the terms should be differentiated. According to a spokesman, the Robert Koch Institute considers all persons associated with the disease such as death COVID-19 crown.
This means that anyone who has been infected by the current corona virus and die counts as a crown death. No matter whether he died as a direct result of infection or if you have suffered from various diseases and the deciding factor is not clear.
Even if the authorities wanted to distinguish between "on" and "with" COVID-19, is not always easy to distinguish in practice. Matthias Graw, director of legal medicine at the LMU Monaco, writes on demand: "The reliable name of the cause of death on the one hand requires a thorough understanding of the disease course and morphological results (by section) on the other filled in many cases not. you usually do not will then be able to distinguish if someone died with '(as tested positive) or' at '(as a causal relationship) SARS-CoV-2. it can therefore be assumed.
The virologist Hendrik Streeck assumed that the statistics will have to be corrected later. However, there is a reasonable supposition that Covid-19 has a higher mortality rate compared to the influence. This is not to trivialize, says Streeck. "But I also noticed that there are some deaths in which you have to assume that the new corona virus was not the cause of death, but that the human being is dead for another reason and that the corona virus have been found there for case."
In fact, there are initial results from a Chinese study. For the journal "The Lancet", doctors have analyzed the course of the disease in 191 patients in two clinics in Wuhan, where the virus was detected in the laboratory and were discharged on January 31 or healed or dead. According to this study, the cause of death can be traced in large part to clearly Covid-19, says Gerd Fätkenheuer, chief of infectious diseases University Hospital of Cologne: "In the study, the most common comorbidities were arterial hypertension and diabetes mellitus which in most cases they are not immediately fatal So it is very likely that pneumonia caused by the virus SARS-CoV 2 was actually the cause of death in most cases. "
According to the Crown briefing on April 3, the RKI also assumed that more people will die because of Covid-19 than has been officially reported, so the number does not lead to an overstatement, but rather an understatement.
Thesis and application no. 5: Comparability
"What efforts are made to bring these basic differences to the population and to make people understand that scenarios such as those in Italy or Spain are not realistic?" However, the factor is in question, as well as previous exposure to smoke, explains another #faktfuchs. Sucharit Bhakdi is right in pointing out that the German health system is better equipped with beds of intensive care than Italian.
4% of the vulnerable population in this country are young people, in Spain even 33.5% in Germany is only seven percent for comparison. In addition, according to Prof. Dr. Reinhard Busse, head of the Health Management Department at the TU Berlin, is significantly more equipped of Italy in terms of the intensive care unit, with a factor of 2.5. " Bhakdi asks to the Registrar:
The facts on the comparability with other corona virus
According Sucharit Bhakdi, scenarios where the health system is on the brink of collapse because of COVID-19 cases and how currently prevailing in Italy and Spain are not realistic for Germany. It has two main topics: the different environmental conditions and a better-equipped health system in Germany.
The thesis Bhakdi environmental influences has been dedicated to several verifiers made in recent days, it is the independent association of Mimikama fact-checking and control of ZDF facts, both show that the statement that the external influence factor air pollution in Italy and Spain there makes people significantly more susceptible to serious developments can not be proven scientifically. Air pollution is remarkable, for example, the large area of Milan. On the other hand, neither the regions particularly affected as Bergamo are particularly stressed in a European comparison, neither has been shown in the past that too many patients died of lung disease in Italy and Spain.
There is good reason to believe that the German clinics will do better with the epidemic. However, according to projections by the authorities, although the epidemic continues, German hospitals will not be able to meet demand. The weak point of care staff remains: If more doctors and nurses fail because infected, the beds of intensive care, which in principle would be available, can not be occupied.
Also, if SARS-Cov-2 continues to spread unchecked, the other patients requiring intensive treatment - such as accident victims or cancer patients - remain. More people could die between them that without the pandemic because the skills clinics are not enough for everyone.
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento